The Prediction of Rice Production in Indonesia Provinces for Developing Sustainable Agriculture

Abstract

Rice is a the main food for Indonesian. At the end of 2017 until January 2018, the price of rice in Indonesia has increased. One of the causes of rising rice prices is the reduced production of rice in the national rice granary area.Rice production is influenced by several factors including the productivity of agricultural land and the extent of agricultural land. The extend of agricultural land in Indonesia tends to decrease, even though the demand of rice in Indonesiais increasing. Thus, the  prediction  of  rice  production  in  Indonesia  based  on  land area  and  productivity  is  important,  for  developing sustainable  agriculture in  this  country. Some semiparametric regression method based on Fourier series estimator compared to make prediction for every province as observations. The result is the best model with the smallest MSE and the biggest determination coefficient that suitable to predict of rice production in Indonesia.